So I’ve been looking at the Alola starters and I’ve been thinking who is Likely to evolve- I’m kind of boring and logical so I turned it into a numbers game.

We’ll start with water types:

Ash obtained 4 out of 6 water type starters (taking Alola out of the equation) each could evolve twice making for 8 potential evolutions between them. Froakie evolved twice giving us 2 out of 8 evolutions: 25%. What’s interesting is, if you add Brock’s Mudkip and Dawn’s Piplup to the mix- where there are now 12 potential evolutions, Piplup didn’t evolve while Mudkip evolved once. This gives us 3/12 evolutions which is still 25%. No one will be shocked but the way things have gone in the past don’t indicate Popplio will evolve.

Pre gen 7, Ash also had 4 of the the 6 fire starters but with two fully evolving and the other two evolving once, we have 6/8 potential evolutions: 75%. Add May’s Torchic, who evolved twice, and Serena’s Fennekin, who evolved once, we have 9/12 potential evolutions- still 75%! And Litten has already evolved into Torracat so perhaps this is all very obvious.

Grass is a bit different as Ash got his hands on 5 of the starters. We have 10 potential evolutions and only 5 occurred making it a straight 50%. If Clemont’s Chespin had evolved, we’d have kept the pattern going but Chespin’s inclusion actually reduces the grass type evolution rate to about 41%. Rowlett has a good chance of staying how it is, based on past data.

But let’s not stop there, the percentages of starter Pokemon merely reaching their middle stage are as followed:

Water 25% for Ash’s (33% when looking at the whole main cast)

Fire is 100% when considering Ash’s fire starters and the entire main cast’s (a statistic that paved the logical outcome for Litten)

Grass saw 60% reach their final stage (throw Chespin in and it becomes 50%)

Another way of grouping the starters is by generation/saga so I’ll rattle it off now (This would be a good time to mention I’ve chosen not to include May’s Bulbasaur and Squirtle and Dawn’s Cyndaquil on purpose)

Kanto: 33% both potential evolutions and middle stages reached (1/3)

Johto: 67% on both figures

Hoenn: 67% of all evolution but 100% made it to at least the middle stage.

Sinnoh: 67% on both figures

Unova: About 17% of potential evolutions, 33% reaching the middle stage

Kalos: 50% of evolutions, 67% for the middle stage

And I’ll adjust the regions where Ash didn’t get all three starters to reflect the Pokemon he caught:

Hoenn: 100% on both account

Sinnoh: 100% for both

Kalos: 100% on both accounts

Each time Ash, has not had all three starters- the one he did have all fully evolved. Also, 67% (2/3) reaching their middle stage is the most recurring number. These numbers look a little better for Rowlett and Popplio.

This is flimsy- by no means can these numbers be taken too seriously. Remember when 0% of Ash’s water starter Pokemon had evolved until one did? This data means little but it’s fun to consider.

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